Let's start with the Rangers. Then we'll get to the Mavericks and their Sunday match-up against the Nuggets.
First off we have Friday night's game which I was in attendance for. The rain decided to hold off and let us go ahead and play ball. Scott Feldman looked REALLY good for most of the time he was in there. I recall looking up at his pitch count sometime in the 5th or 6th and seeing he had thrown 40 strikes to 17 balls. That is just a ridiculously good strike to ball ratio. His location was really good most the night.
Kinsler led off the game with another home run and the Rangers added two more in the third to give them a 3-0 lead. Feldman had only allowed 1 hit through 5 and 2/3 and the Rangers still maintained their 3-0 lead. Then it just fell apart.
Feldman quickly retired the first two hitters of the 6th. Then Getz hit a bloop single to right that Nelly Cruz just couldn't get over to in time. Then Fields hit one between Kinsler and Andrus to center to put runners on first and second. Then Feldman walked Carlos Quentin.
Now, instead of an easy 6th and a 3-0 lead, you're looking at bases loaded, two out for Jim Thome. Call to the bullpen and in comes Kid Miracle, Derek Holland.
After getting Thome to swing and miss at some high heat, Holland left a fastball a little too high. Thome missed a grand slam to left by about 18 inches. Instead, it was a three run double. All charged to Feldman, who I felt bad for. He really was pitching well and it just all fell apart in the 6th.
Rangers were able to get out without giving up anymore runs in the inning, but it was 3-3.
The most critical moment in the game came in the 7th inning. Two out Podsednik on with Getz at the plate, Holland picks off Podsednik at first base. Or so we thought...for the second time in the game, the Rangers were called for a balk and Podsednik went to second. Moments later, Getz tripled to the gap in right center and brought Scott Podsednik home. 4-3 lead, and it would stay that way for the remainder of the game. Rangers lose.
Two things are tough to take about this game, other than what's already been mentioned. First up is the fact that Andruw Jones JUST missed a two run go ahead home run in the 8th inning. With Michael Young at second, Andruw just barely got under a pitch and lifted it to the deepest part of the ballpark where it died just before the warning track. Young tagged to third, but Blalock grounded out right after that. Missed opportunity there.
The other thing that's hard for me to accept is the 9th inning decision by Ron Washington to pinch hit for Elvis Andrus. Now, granted, Andrus isn't the best bat in the lineup, but he had smoked a triple earlier in the game and with two outs, a man on first and just praying you can get to Kinsler who's on deck, I don't understand how you can justify bringing in David Murphy who may be the coldest hitter in the major leagues right now. He dribbled out to the pitcher who threw on to first and ended the game. Awful decision.
Now for tonight's marathon of a game that was delayed and then stopped twice by rain.
Brandon McCarthy had a nice outing. 5 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run and 3 strikeouts. He only threw 68 pitches before Luis Mendoza was brought in with a 9-1 lead which he tried to give back.
Hank Blalock started the scoring off with a three run home run in the third inning and the Rangers exploded for 6 runs in the 4th, an inning in which they hit 5 doubles. Blalock himself picked up another RBI that inning and finished with 4 RBIs for the game.
Mendoza loaded up the bases in the 6th after coming in for B-Mac and gave up a grand slam to A.J. Pierzynski. 9-5 game.
After failing to score in the bottom half of the inning, Guardado came in for the Rangers in the 7th. Honestly, it's time for Eddie Guardado to retire. His ERA after allowing an RBI double in the 7th tonight is now a disgusting 10.12. Darren O'Day (Who has been really solid since coming over) came in to relieve Guardado and got out of a two out, two in scoring position jam.
The game was 9-6 after that and it stayed that way until the end.
Frankie Francisco appeared again tonight and threw a total of 13 pitches, 11 for strikes. His ERA after 11.2 innings still sits at 0.00...unbelieveable. Francisco has been simply dominant all year.
Rangers now sit at 11-12 and are in 2nd place, 2 and a half back from the division leading Mariners, who are 14-10.
If the bullpen can just work out some of their kinks and Hamilton comes back playing like Rangers fans know he can, there is no reason they can't compete for the division, ESPECIALLY with the way the Angels have played so far.
Now on to the Mavs.
Mavericks were swept during the season series, losing 3 of the 4 games by 3 points or less. It's not like the Nuggets are completely out of the Mavericks league. I do think the Nuggets are a better basketball team, though.
Dallas is finally healthy and playing their best basketball of the season, but the same is to be said about the Nuggets. Something has to give. One team has to break.
Quick look at the matchups...
POINT GUARD
Chauncey Billups for the Nuggets and Jason Kidd for the Mavericks. People love to criticize Jason Kidd and his knees for the way he's played defensively against some of the top point guards in the league the last year and a half. People point to what Parker did in the San Antonio series, what Deron Williams has done against them recently and the way Chris Paul consistently destroys the Mavs. People will say that automatically means Chauncey Billups will have success against the Mavericks. That's not the truth and I don't think Billups does a whole lot against Dallas in this series.
The difference between what Kidd did against those three point guards and what he'll see with Billups is that Williams, Parker and Paul may be the three quickest point guards in the league. Kidd's knee's aren't as good as they used to be and it's why he struggles against the quick point guards. It really is a liability. But Billups isn't the fastest point guard around. Kidd can hang with his quickness and the thing that should most trouble Nuggets fans is that Kidd can hang with his speed while still having a considerable size advantage on Billups. Billups is 6'3, 202 and Kidd is 6'4 (Bordering on 6'5) 210 pounds. Kidd will make things difficult on the perimiter for Billups and I don't think Chauncey's court vision is good enough to take advantage of the passing lanes that may be afforded from Kidd's press D.
A lot of people think this is a matchup in favor of Billups, but I really don't think so. Watch this matchup closely. Billups is a good defender, so I don't expect clean looks at the basket for Kidd, but what the Mavericks need from him most is to find shots for Dirk and it's something he can do even with Billups' solid D.
Billups will still score some points, and he'll average more than Kidd this series, but I expect Kidd to have a definitively better series than Billups.
EDGE: Dallas
SHOOTING GUARD
This is sort of an odd matchup. It's not clear who will be starting at Shooting Guard for Dallas in this series (Wright or Barea...probably Barea to make up for Denver's athleticism) but it doesn't really matter who's starting for either team, because it's both team's backup shooting guards that get most the minutes at the spot.
Dahntay Jones is the starting SG for Denver. He's not someone that will do a whole lot of damage to you on either end of the floor. If Barea does indeed start, I could see Barea having success since Jones or Billups will guard him. Billups is good defensively, but Barea has a significant speed advantage over him and if Jones were to guard him, Barea would blow right by him into the paint about every time down the floor. Once he gets inside, he needs to be careful of Denver's shot blocking ability with Nene, Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen. If Barea can get inside, Mavericks fans need to hope he looks for the kickout to which ever teammate benefits from Denver collapsing on Barea in the paint. This would probably be Howard. If Barea keeps an eye out for Howard, Dallas can have success here.
But as I said, this is more the bench player's position. 6th man of the year Jason Terry plays more than 30 minutes a game and Nuggets' 6th man J.R. Smith plays about the same amount. Mavericks fans know all about Terry and what he can do with his mid-range game and when he gets hot from 3. Mavericks fans also may know what Smith can do as he has torched the Mavericks in the past from downtown. Smith can get on a roll and when he does, it's major trouble for any perimiter defense. There have been 10 games this season where J.R. Smith has hit at least 5 3-pointers in a game, including his season high 11 of 18 3-point shooting against the Kings in the second to last game of the season. Smith scored 45 points in less than 30 minutes of play.
Dallas actually did a decent job defending J.R. Smith's 3-point shooting this season, thanks mainly to Antoine Wright who will probably be guarding him when both are on the floor. Smith shot 39 percent from beyond the arc for the season, but in 4 games against the Mavericks he shot 35% (6 of 17). Smith did light it up a bit the last time he played Dallas when he made 4 of 7 three pointers.
The Mavericks have given Smith some considerable trouble causing his worst game of the season (The game in which he elbowed Antoine Wright and drew the ire of Mavs owner Mark Cuban) when he went 1 for 14 against Dallas in a 99-97 January victory.
Jason Terry is due for a breakout game and it's hard to think that J.R. Smith will be held down too much this series. I think this one is pretty much a push.
EDGE: Push
SMALL FORWARD
I would love to give Dallas the edge in this one with the way Josh Howard has been playing, but Carmelo Anthony is simply better.
Anthony had one of his best all-around seasons as a pro. His scoring was a bit down, but his rebound and assist totals were above his career average, he was averaging a steal a game, he kept his turnovers down and improved his three point shooting having his best percentage shooting from beyond the arc. Anthony stepped up his game in the New Orleans series as he raised his field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, assist average, points per game, steals per game and blocks per game from the regular season. With the three point shot being more involved in Melo's game, he's now able to draw attention away from the basket and dribble off the fake for more points in the paint.
Josh Howard is also playing some of the best basketball of his career, but he's still got a bit of a gimpy ankle, which he admits needs surgery after the season is over. He didn't really play at 100 percent in the two games he played against the Nuggets this year and while he's more healthy, I'm not sure he's healthy enough to guard Anthony and the penetration he poses to the defense. Carmelo could very easily average over 30 points a game if Howard is the one defending him.
I still expect Howard to perform on offense, but don't expect him to outperform Melo.
EDGE: Denver
POWER FORWARD
Such an interesting matchup. Kenyon Martin has always been a good defensive player, but he's stepped it up in recent months and has become a legitimate stopper. Martin's best contributions are not on the offensive end, so don't focus in on his 10 point a game playoff average. He's not out there to lead the team in scoring. He's out there to violently defend the opposing power forward. George Karl swears up and down that he will not double team Dirk Nowitzki. It'll (Allegedly) be K-Mart 1-on-1 with Dirk. Expect Kenyon to get super physical with Dirk...taking the same approach as the Rockets did a few years back in their first round series with Dallas.
In fact, there is a quote out from Martin in which he says he will "Hold him, grab him, push him, whatever you can do." to make up for the fact he is smaller than Dirk.
K-Mart has some shotty knees. That's a well documented fact. One of the things that has always given Dirk the ability to be a tough cover is that he's too quick for the big men and too tall for the small forwards teams put on him to match his agility. Well, in this case, Dirk has both advantages over Martin. Dirk is a good 3 or 4 inches taller than Kenyon and with K-Mart's bum knees and large size, Dirk can easily take him off the dribble. The area where he may have trouble with Martin is banging in the post. I think you'll see a lot of Dirk facing Kenyon Martin up. He'll stand at the top of the key and either shoot it over his head, or drive by him for a layup and attempt at getting to the line.
Just like I expect Melo to dominate over Josh Howard, I expect exactly the same sort of performance from Dirk.
EDGE: Dallas
CENTER
This is probably the least interesting matchup of the 5. Erick Dampier against Nene Hilario.
Now, I really should be fair to Erick Dampier who played good basketball in the first round. Quite possibly the best round of playoff basketball he's ever played. He averaged 8.4 points (2.7 above his season average) 8.4 rebounds (1.3 above his season average) shot 68% from the field (3% higher than his season average) and 66% from the line (Once more, 3% higher than his season average)
Dampier provided solid defense and was good on the boards. It was also nice to see him get authoritative and dunk the basketball in traffic more often. Dampier played inspired basketball against San Antonio and if he can keep it up against Nene, the Mavericks have a much better chance of winning this series.
Nene had a very good season this year. He set career highs in rebounds per game, points per game, free throw percentage and field goal percentage. He passed those numbers with ease too. Nene is also an effective defensive player.
It's encouraging that Dampier played so well last round and it can give you hope that he can at least equalize Nene especially since he was so underwhelming against New Orleans.
Tough to say here, but I'll give Denver the slight edge. Damp will make it close though as he, like just about every Maverick, is playing his best ball of the season.
EDGE: Denver
Matchups all are pretty close. Here's some numbers from the regular season and playoffs...
DALLAS
Season Leaders
Record: 50-32, 6th seed in Western Conference
Averages: 101.7 ppg scored, 99.8 ppg allowed (+1.9)
Points: Dirk Nowitzki - 25.9 (30.0 vs Denver)
Rebounds: Dirk Nowitzki - 8.4 (11.2 vs Denver)
Assists: Jason Kidd - 8.7 (7.0 vs Denver)
Steals: Jason Kidd - 2.0 (0.3 vs Denver)
Blocks: Erick Dampier - 1.2 (1.5 vs Denver)
Playoff Leaders
Record: 4-1 (Beat #3 Spurs, 4-1)
Averages: 96.4 ppg scored, 90.4 ppg allowed (+6.0)
Points: Dirk Nowitzki - 19.2
Rebounds: Dirk Nowitzki - 8.6
Assists: Jason Kidd - 5.6
Steals: Jason Kidd - 2.4
Blocks: Erick Dampier - 1.4
DENVER
Season Leaders
Record: 54-28, 2nd seed in Western Conference
Averages: 104.3 ppg scored, 100.9 ppg allowed (+3.4)
Points: Carmelo Anthony - 22.8 (31.3 vs Dallas)
Rebounds: Nene - 7.8 (7.3 vs Dallas)
Assists: Chauncey Billups - 6.4 (6.0 vs Dallas)
Steals: Kenyon Martin - 1.5 (1.5 vs Dallas)
Blocks: Chris Andersen - 2.5 (1.5 vs Dallas)
Playoff Leaders
Record: 4-1 (Beat # 7 Hornets, 4-1)
Averages: 108.4 ppg scored, 84.2 ppg allowed (+24.2)
Points: Carmelo Anthony - 24.0
Rebounds: Nene - 7.8
Assists: Chauncey Billups - 7.4
Steals: Carmelo Anthony - 1.8
Blocks: Chris Andersen - 1.8
Prediction for the series?
I don't know what to pick. It's such a difficult call because they're both playing so well right now.
I'll be a homer and I'll say the Mavericks win games 1, 3, 4 and 6. Mavericks 4 games to 2.
What are your thoughts on the series? Let me know...drop a line in the comments section.
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